Match Roundup Models vs prediction markets — football, decoded.
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FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 · USA · CANADA · MEXICO

48 teams. 12 groups. One model that disagrees with the market.

We've priced every fixture of the group stage against Polymarket and Kalshi. Below: opening week, edge flagged when we differ ≥3pp.

KICKOFF IN --DAYS : --HRS : --MIN : --SEC
MEX vs ECU Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Title contenders — model vs market

Top 8 by our pre-tournament probability. Edge column is model minus market in percentage points.

01 Argentina +1.3pp
MODEL 13.1%
MARKET 11.8%
02 France -1.3pp
MODEL 12.2%
MARKET 13.5%
03 Brazil +1.4pp
MODEL 11.8%
MARKET 10.4%
04 Spain -1.3pp
MODEL 10.8%
MARKET 12.1%
05 England +0.5pp
MODEL 9.4%
MARKET 8.9%
06 Portugal +0.4pp
MODEL 7.2%
MARKET 6.8%
07 Germany -1.1pp
MODEL 6.1%
MARKET 7.2%
08 Netherlands +0.2pp
MODEL 4.5%
MARKET 4.3%

Opening week — pick a card to expand

First six fixtures, MD1 + early MD2. Edge-flagged matches (red rail) are where we and the book disagree most.

Group A · MD1 · Jun 11, 08:00 PM UTC · Estadio Azteca
EDGE +3.0pp
MEX WWDLW
vs
WDWWL ECU
MODEL 42% 27% 31% MARKET 39% 28% 33%
Group G · MD1 · Jun 12, 06:00 PM UTC · MetLife Stadium
EDGE +6.0pp
MAR WWWDW
vs
LWDLW IRN
MODEL 41% 31% 28% MARKET 36% 30% 34%
Group B · MD1 · Jun 12, 10:00 PM UTC · SoFi Stadium
EDGE +3.0pp
USA WDLWW
vs
WWWWD KOR
MODEL 48% 26% 26% MARKET 51% 25% 24%
Group D · MD1 · Jun 13, 08:00 PM UTC · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
EDGE +4.0pp
ARG WWWDW
vs
WWWWD NOR
MODEL 54% 24% 22% MARKET 58% 23% 19%
Group E · MD1 · Jun 14, 06:00 PM UTC · AT&T Stadium
EDGE +3.0pp
FRA WWDWW
vs
WDWWL EGY
MODEL 62% 22% 16% MARKET 65% 22% 13%
Group G · MD2 · Jun 15, 08:00 PM UTC · Lincoln Financial Field
EDGE +7.0pp
ESP WWWDW
vs
WWWDW MAR
MODEL 47% 28% 25% MARKET 54% 25% 21%

Group stage — 48 teams

Draw seeds shown. Replace via official FIFA draw on ingest.

GROUP A
  1. 1 MEX
  2. 2 CAN
  3. 3 JPN
  4. 4 ECU
GROUP B
  1. 1 USA
  2. 2 KOR
  3. 3 UKR
  4. 4 CRC
GROUP C
  1. 1 CAN
  2. 2 SUI
  3. 3 SEN
  4. 4 JOR
GROUP D
  1. 1 ARG
  2. 2 CIV
  3. 3 NOR
  4. 4 PAN
GROUP E
  1. 1 FRA
  2. 2 AUS
  3. 3 EGY
  4. 4 UZB
GROUP F
  1. 1 BRA
  2. 2 CRO
  3. 3 TUN
  4. 4 NZL
GROUP G
  1. 1 ESP
  2. 2 SCO
  3. 3 MAR
  4. 4 IRN
GROUP H
  1. 1 ENG
  2. 2 COL
  3. 3 DEN
  4. 4 RSA
GROUP I
  1. 1 PORT
  2. 2 BEL
  3. 3 ALG
  4. 4 UAE
GROUP J
  1. 1 GER
  2. 2 URU
  3. 3 NGA
  4. 4 CRI
GROUP K
  1. 1 NED
  2. 2 TUR
  3. 3 CAM
  4. 4 KSA
GROUP L
  1. 1 ITA
  2. 2 POL
  3. 3 GHA
  4. 4 NCL

Probabilities are model output, not advice. Sources: open Dixon-Coles + Polymarket Gamma + Kalshi.

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